Monday Night Doubleheader: Bills vs Falcons Prediction and Best Bet

It’s a Monday night treat with two fun primetime matchups on tabs, but our focus turns to Atlanta, where the Buffalo Bills visit the Falcons.

With the Bills' backs to the wall, Josh Allen becomes a focal point tonight—specifically his legs. I am attacking his rushing yards. While his line sits near 38 yards, a number he’s cleared in three of his last five games, dropping that number to 25 yards shows a perfect five-for-five.

For me, this is more about the context than the trend. Coming off a loss, and now in primetime, Allen should lean on his legs to jumpstart the Bills and keep his offense out of long-yardage situations. Expect him to be active on the ground frequently.

Atlanta’s defense ranks 13^th in quarterback rushing yards allowed, giving up roughly 23 per game. That number is somewhat misleading, though. Most of their opponents, outside of Marcus Mariota, aren’t known for their mobility – leaving an opportunity for Allen to exploit.

The Falcons enter fresh off a bye, but I’m not ready to auto bet them because of it.

Their pass defense has shown real improvements, but their run defense remains inconsistent. Mix in an inefficient offense, and the concern grows. Atlanta ranks 23^rd in EPA per play and 20^th in offensive success rate. This bodes well for a struggling Bills defense that’s looking to improve and make a statement.

Despite last week’s setback against the Patriots, the Bills are not out of the hunt for the AFC’s top seed. A second straight loss is not an option for a team with championship aspirations.

Parlay: Josh Allen 25+ Rushing Yards + Bills ML (-110)