LA BOWL: Boise State vs Washington Prediction and Best Bet

This is one of those bowl games that just feels odd from the jump. We’re opening bowl season with an event that won’t even exist next year, which already puts it in the strange category. That weirdness carries right into the betting angle, because this matchup is far more about game script than star power or motivation narratives.

My favorite look here is Washington’s rushing total over. Boise State is a team you can move on the ground, and the numbers back that up pretty clearly. They sit middle of the pack in raw rushing success and EPA against the run, but what really stands out is how often teams keep running on them regardless of score. Boise is near the bottom nationally in rush rate over expected on defense, which tells you opponents don’t abandon the run, even when trailing. That matters a lot in a bowl setting where coaches are usually happy to lean on what works and shorten the game.

Washington isn’t an elite rushing team by season-long averages, checking in around 158 yards per game, but context matters here. As a near double-digit favorite, this sets up for a positive script where carries pile up late. Coleman is a question mark, but Mohammed is still a problem, and you can reasonably project 40 to 50 rushing yards coming from the quarterback position as well. Those ancillary yards add up quickly.

Boise also comes in with a banged-up quarterback and a rough bowl track record, having not covered a postseason game since 2018. If Washington gets control early, this turns into a steady diet of runs in the second half. Not flashy, not exciting, but very on brand for how these games usually play out. And hey, if Jedd Fisch wants to treat this like a subtle résumé tape, leaning on a dominant ground game isn’t the worst audition.

Washington Team Total Rushing: Over 183.5 (-114) 0.5un FanDuel