Monday Night Football: Eagles at Chargers Prediction and Preview

The numbers paint a pretty honest picture of where these two teams stand, and it sets up a matchup that could hinge on a few very specific edges. Philadelphia’s offense has been a mixed bag all season, and the chart backs it up. Their EPA/play mark sits middle of the pack, but the real concern is efficiency snap to snap. A 41.9 percent success rate ranks near the bottom of the league, and the third-down issues jump off the page. Sitting 28th in conversion rate is exactly why this group has looked disjointed at times.

The Eagles still generate chunk plays through the air — an 11th-place EPA/pass and the No. 1 ADOT ranking show they’re pushing the ball vertically — but the run game hasn’t carried its usual weight. EPA/rush sits at 21st, and the offense leans pass at one of the highest clips in the league. When they hit, it looks great. When they don’t, drives stall in a hurry.

Defensively, Philadelphia has been steadier. Ninth in EPA/play allowed and eighth in success rate is a strong combination, and they defend the pass at a top-10 level. The weakness is obvious: explosive plays. They sit 28th in explosive play rate allowed, which is never a good sign against a Chargers offense that still lives off big moments.

Looking at Los Angeles, the profile is almost inverted. Offensively, the Chargers are perfectly average in overall EPA/play, holding down the 14th spot. They aren’t nearly as efficient as their raw yardage would suggest — an 18th-ranked EPA/pass and middling success rate tell that story — but they thrive in high-leverage situations. They’re second in the entire league on third down, converting nearly half their attempts. That’s where they keep games alive.

Defensively, the Chargers are quietly top-10 across the most important categories. Ninth in EPA/play allowed. Seventh against the pass. Eighth in success rate. This unit has been far stingier than the box scores imply, and they match up well against a Philadelphia attack that has struggled to stay ahead of the chains. The weak spot? Same as the Eagles — explosive plays — and both teams land in the bottom third there.

The matchup sets up as a “who breaks first” kind of night. The Eagles have the bigger swings in their profile, both good and bad. The Chargers are steadier, more consistent snap to snap, especially on defense. If Philadelphia can hit a few of those deep shots that their metrics tease, they can overcome the efficiency concerns. If not, the Chargers’ defensive stability and third-down offense give them a real path to control the game.

(Powered by AI)