RSM Classic Betting Preview: Course Breakdown, Key Stats, and Best Bets at Sea Island

The FedExCup Fall reaches the finish line this week on the Georgia coast, where Sea Island Golf Club hosts the final chance for players to lock up full status for the 2026 PGA TOUR Season. For those hovering around the top-100 bubble, every shot matters. Four rounds remain to define what next year looks like.

Last week offered a clear example of what’s possible. Adam Schenk, making his 243rd career start, survived heavy winds and a chaotic closing stretch to capture his first PGA TOUR victory at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Sitting outside the top 100, he needed a big result to secure his standing—and delivered.

Now attention shifts to St. Simons Island, where plenty of players arrive hoping for a similar breakthrough.

Harris English, who lives in Sea Island and once starred at the University of Georgia, opens as the betting favorite at +1900. Fellow Bulldog and local resident Brian Harman follows at +2200. Naturally, SEC ties draw plenty of interest this week, but history has been less inviting than expected: only three SEC players have ever won the RSM Classic, most recently Austin Cook in 2017. And no Sea Island resident has lifted the trophy since Kevin Kisner in 2015.

Course Preview

Players will split their first two rounds between the Seaside and Plantation courses before the cut on Friday, with the weekend taking place entirely on Seaside.

Plantation Course

• Par 72 | 7,060 yards

• Most scoreable track of the two

• Wide landing zones (43 yards on average)

• 32 acres of fairways, 81 bunkers, water on 10 holes

Only one competitive round here gives limited value to course-specific modeling.

Seaside Course

• Par 70 | 7,005 yards

• Larger greens and water in play on 13 holes

• Coastal wind influence makes it the tougher test

  
  

Weather Outlook

Conditions look manageable with winds forecast around 6–10 mph through much of the week. Saturday is the potential curveball, with gusts projected between 16–21 mph and the possibility of rain.

With light winds and wider-than-average fairways, scoring opportunities should be plentiful—but accuracy still matters. The fairway hit rate here is roughly 70% (well above TOUR average), and misses come with real consequence. Large greens also bring three-putt avoidance into play.

Key Stats for Models

• SG: Total

• Driving Accuracy

• Greens in Regulation

• SG: Approach

• Proximity 125–150 yards

• Proximity 150–175 yards

• SG: Putting (Bermuda)

• SG: Putting Inside 10 feet

• Three-Putt Avoidance

Best Bet: Chris Kirk to Win (+3500)

Chris Kirk is one of the most compelling outright plays this week. Yes, he’s a former Georgia Bulldog with local ties. Yes, he won this event back in 2013. But the number at +3500 is rooted in form and fit more than narrative.

Kirk struggled with the putter for much of last season, losing strokes on the greens in 10 straight starts before finally turning the corner at THE PLAYERS Championship with +4.0. The real shift came at the U.S. Open, and since then he has gained strokes putting in every event. That run includes a runner-up at the Rocket Classic and five top-20 finishes in seven starts.

His ball-striking profile fits Sea Island well. He’s accurate off the tee, hits plenty of greens, and ranks eighth in the field over the last 36 rounds from 125–150 yards, the most important wedge-distance bucket this week.

His history on Bermuda adds another plus: wins at the Sanderson Farms, Charles Schwab Challenge, Cognizant Classic, and The Sentry.

The downside is real too: three missed cuts in his last four RSM starts and no competitive appearance since early August (T9 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship).

Even so, the upside is too strong to overlook. If the putter stays hot and the iron play continues, he has every chance to contend—and at 35-1, the return is hard to pass up.