Premier League Match Day 6 Best Bet
- Brad Thomas
- Sep 24
- 4 min read
English Premier League: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Saturday, September 27, 10:00 AM ET
How to Watch: Peacock
Moneyline Odds: Crystal Palace (+275) | Draw (+275) | Liverpool (-108)
Total: Over 2.75 (-108) | Under 2.75 (-112)
This, right here, is an incredible moment.
I am writing my first article on my very own website.
I promise that not every article will be this long. Some may be as short as 200 words or less.
Yet, there will be an attempt to put pen to paper every day if possible!
I want to thank you for taking the time to visit my website and read my work. This is very much a work in progress, but I’m excited to see how this evolves.
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Defending Premier League Champions and current table toppers Liverpool travel to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace.
Last week’s 2-1 win over Everton broke a streak of four consecutive match winners with 10 minutes or fewer left in regulation.
After that win, Liverpool have now won all five to start the season.
Crystal Palace deserve some praise for their start despite selling big names in consecutive seasons.
Although Eberechi Eze, widely considered their top player, has departed, the team remains unbeaten this season.
Palace are succeeding with tremendous defense. They have conceded the joint-fewest goals this season.
Their biggest defensive accomplishment comes from their clean sheet at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea to start the season.
Now they play against arguably the most dangerous attack in the Premier League.
For Liverpool, three points aren’t guaranteed against Palace, especially at Selhurst Park. The Seagulls haven’t lost a match in 17 games. During that span, they conceded only 11 goals.
While I’m very high on this Liverpool side and think they will win this match, Palace’s record must be taken into consideration.
So why am I backing Liverpool draw no bet as the first leg of my parlay? Hmmm…
I know people don’t care about the Community Shield, but I’m going to use this as an example.
Palace were able to beat Liverpool on penalties after Ismaila Sarr leveled the match in the 77th minute.
Despite Liverpool scoring two, Palace won the xG battle 2.07 to 1.10.
However, I think using xG in this match is foolish. Jean-Phillippe Mateta created 0.79 xG on the penalty kick alone. If you take the penalty away, they likely score only once, and their xG is just 1.28.
If we take it further, they will also be without the second goal scorer, Sarr, who will miss this match due to injury. He created 0.66 xG in the game.
This is a different and less threatening attack for Palace without Eze and Sarr. If Liverpool score two goals, which appears likely, it would be difficult to foresee how Palace would be able to equal their goal tally.
Despite being undefeated in this early run, they scored just six goals. They have an average xG of just 1.27.
Pair that with Liverpool’s quality in front of net this season, it’s hard to see how Palace win this match.
The Reds have scored a league-leading 11 goals this season and have the second-highest expected goals (xG) at 1.62.
With an attack that is flush with talent, I like betting on them against anyone.
From my perspective, 1-1 is the best result Palace can aim for. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 results from the visitors.
Parlay Leg 1: Liverpool DNB
English Premier League: Brentford vs Manchester United
Saturday, September 27, 7:30 AM ET
How to Watch: NBC Sports
Moneyline Odds: Brentford (+235) | Draw (+270) | Manchester United (+107)
Total: Over 2.75 (-118) | Under 2.75 (-102)
Since Thomas Frank left Brentford, Keith Andrews and the Bees have attempted to maintain the status quo. Tactically, they wanted to stay the same. While that has happened to some extent, the departures from their team have lowered their levels somewhat.
They are 1-1-3 and are just one point above the drop.
Defensively, they are one of the worst units in the Premier League. They are one of three teams to have conceded double-digit goals.
The biggest weakness of the Bees comes from the backline. They are also missing Christian Norgaard to help hold the ball up and maintain some defensive balance.
Good news for the Bees, they are playing one of the most disjointed units in the Premier League at the moment.
Despite the rocky start for United, Ruben Amorim has maintained the stance that he will not change his system. Over bettors should rejoice.
United are conceding two goals per away day. Mainly due to the holes left in transition. Big gaping holes that even you and I could take and score from.
Another reason I like the over in this match is that United might be the most “due” team for an offensive explosion.
United lead the Premier League in shots per 90 minutes and expected goals (xG). They are also second in shots on target per 90. Yet, they have only scored six goals. Five less than league leaders, Liverpool.
Brentford is the perfect team for United to find their attacking form, especially with Bryan Mbeumo playing in his first match back at Gtech Community Stadium since departing in the summer.
Parlay Leg 2: Brentford vs Manchester United Over 2 Goals
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